Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
